تأثیر توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر نوسانات بازار بورس در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران.

چکیده

توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، نقش بسیار مهمی در تغییر مناسبات فرهنگی، سیاسی و اقتصاد جامعه داشته است که ازجمله مهم‌ترین مصادیق آن در بعد اقتصادی، بازارهای مالی و بورس اوراق بهادار است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش بررسی ارتباط میان تغییرات فناوری‌های نوین ارتباطی و نوسانات شاخص بورس اوراق بهادار تهران (یا ریسک بازار) می‌‌باشد. موضوع از این ‌جهت دارای اهمیت است که توسعه بازارهای مالی و تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری آن از فضای مجازی و حوزه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، از یک‌سو می‌تواند زمینه ایجاد نوسان و درنتیجه سوءاستفاده را برای عده‌ای فراهم آورده و از سوی دیگر می‌تواند با آگاهی‌بخشی و ارائه اطلاعات صحیح، اسباب کاهش نوسانات را فراهم آورد. برای پاسخ به پرسش اصلی پژوهش، از داده‌های حوزه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و نوسانات شاخص قیمت سهام به عنوان متغیرهای اصلی و نوسانات نرخ قیمت در بازار کالا و خدمات، نوسان نرخ ارز، نوسان قیمت طلا و نوسان قیمت نفت خام به عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی طی دوره زمانی 1370-1399 استفاده‌شده است. نتایج تجربی حاصل از روش خود رگرسیون با وقفه‌‌های توزیعی (ARDL) بیانگر آن است که شاخص فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر شاخص نوسانات بازار بورس اثر منفی و معناداری دارد. به‌عبارت‌دیگر در طول سالیان گذشته، بهبود شاخص فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، نوسانات بازار بورس را کاهش داده است. ازاین‌جهت می‌توان با مدیریت صحیح و بهبود عملکرد شاخص‌های فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، ریسک بازارهای مالی را کاهش داد و مانع سوءاستفاده نوسان‌گیران از بازار شد. اثر متغیرهای کنترلی نیز مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Information and Communication Technology Development on Stock Market Fluctuations in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • AbdolMohammad Kashian 1
  • AbolFazl Taherian 2
1 Assistant Prof., Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
2 Master of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between changes in new communication technologies and fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange index (or market risk). The issue is important because the development of financial markets and its impact on cyberspace and the field of information and communication technology, on the one hand can cause fluctuations and consequently abuse for some, and on the other hand can raise awareness and provide Proper information to reduce fluctuations, and therefore the subject requires proper management and the establishment of correct and efficient laws in this area. To answer the main question of the research, data of information and communication technology and stock price index fluctuations. have been used as the main variables and price fluctuations in the goods and services market, exchange rate fluctuations, gold price fluctuations and crude oil price fluctuations as control variables during The time period of 1991-2020 has been used. the results obtained from the ARDL method indicate that the ICT index has a negative and significant effect on the stock market fluctuations. In other words, the improvement of the ICT index over the past years has reduced the fluctuations of the stock market. Therefore, by properly managing and improving the performance of ICT indicators, the risk of financial markets can be reduced and fluctuators in the market can be prevented from being abused. The effect of control variables has been evaluated.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Stock market
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Stock Exchange
  • exchange rate
  • Fava

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 12، شماره 39
مهر 1401
صفحه 83-102

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