طراحی مدلی برای توضیح تأثیر احساسات سرمایه‌گذاران بر تصمیمات مالی، بازده سهام و نوسانات اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای حسابداری، گروه حسابداری، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد شاهین شهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.

4 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده

تغییر قیمت سهام نه‌تنها متأثر از ارزش ذاتی ارائه‌‌شده توسط اطلاعات حسابداری است، بلکه از رفتار سرمایه‌گذاران که تحت عنوان احساسات سرمایه‌گذاران یاد می‌شود، تأثیرپذیر است. احساسات سرمایه‌گذار چنانچه از باورهای ذهنی نادرست و اطلاعات نامربوط نشأت گیرد، ممکن است موجب پیش‌بینی غلط و نوسانات قیمت بازار شود؛ لذا احساسات سرمایه‌گذاران می‌تواند بر بازار سهام و وقایع آن تأثیرگذار باشد، چراکه معمولاً سرمایه‌گذاران با نگرشی خوش‌بینانه و یا بدبینانه نسبت به آینده سرمایه‌گذاری می‌کنند. این مطالعه باهدف توسعه و ارزیابی مدلی است که به دنبال تأثیر احساسات سرمایه‌گذار بر تصمیمات مالی و بازده سهام و نوسانات اقتصادی در شرکت‌های پذیرفته ‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران می‌باشد. این پژوهش بر حسب هدف از نوع تحقیقات بنیادی است. برای آزمون فرضیه‌ها، از مدل رگرسیون چندمتغیره استفاده شده است و سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای EViews و Stata تحلیل شدند جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل شرکت‌های پذیرفته ‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است که تعداد شرکت به روش حذف سیستماتیک در دوره زمانی 1400-1390 به‌عنوان نمونه آماری بوده که حجم نمونه باتوجه‌به روش غربالگری و پس از حذف مشاهدات پرت برابر با 105 شرکت می‌باشد. در این تحقیق که از داده‌های پانل (تابلویی) با اثرات ثابت استفاده شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌د‌هد ویژگی‌های شخصیتی بر رفتـار معـاملاتی افـراد و عملکرد سرمایه‌گذاران و عملکرد سرمایه‌گذاری آن‌ها تأثیرگذار است و رابطه معناداری مثبت بین احساس سرمایه‌گذار در تصمیمات مالی و بازده سهام وجود دارد. همچنین سایر نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در دوره‌های که احساس سرمایه‌گذار خوش‌بینانه است و بازار در دوره رکود است معاملات بیشتری در بورس اوراق بهادار انجام می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a model to explain the impact of investors' emotions on financial decisions, stock returns and economic volatility

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohamad Mohamadi 1
  • Majid Azimi Yancheshme 2
  • Masoud Fouladi 3
  • Maryam Farhadi 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Accounting, Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Shahin Shahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
4 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The change in stock price is not only affected by the intrinsic value provided by accounting information, but also by the behavior of investors, which is referred to as investor sentiment. If the investor's feelings originate from false mental beliefs and irrelevant information, it may cause wrong predictions and market price fluctuations; Therefore, investors' feelings can affect the stock market and its events, because investors usually invest with an optimistic or pessimistic attitude towards the future. This study aims to develop and evaluate a model that looks for the impact of investors' emotions on financial decisions and stock returns and economic fluctuations in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. This research is based on the purpose of basic research. To test the hypotheses, a multivariate regression model was used and then they were analyzed using EViews and Stata software. It is a statistic that the sample size is equal to 105 companies according to the screening method and after removing outlier observations. In this research, panel data with fixed effects have been used. The results of this research show that personality traits have an effect on people's transactional behavior and investors' performance and their investment performance, and there is a significant positive relationship between investor's feelings in financial decisions and stock returns. Also, other results of the research show that more transactions are done in the stock exchange in periods when investor sentiment is optimistic and the market is in recession

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Behavioral Finance
  • Investor Sentiment
  • Economic Volatility
  • Stock Buying and Selling Decisions
  • Stock Return

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 12، شماره 40
دی 1401
صفحه 145-171

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