مدیریت سبد سرمایه‌گذاری در صنعت پالایشگاهی: بررسی شرایط با بازدهی مثبت و منفی: رویکرد Asymmetric TVP-VAR

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دکتری مدیریت استراتژیک، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم.

10.48308/jfmp.2024.104291

چکیده

صنعت پالایشگاهی یکی از مهمترین صنایع بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است که نوسانات در قیمت جهانی نفت بر رفتار سهم‌های موجود در آن اثرات قابل توجهی دارد. این اثرات به گونه‌ای است که ارتباط بین هر سهم با دیگری را نیز تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. لذا، به جهت عدم امکان بررسی همه سهم‌های موجود در بازار سهام، تشکیل پرتفوی بهینه از صنایع مختلف نیازمند شناسایی سهم پیشرو در این صنعت است. به این منظور در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های روزانه در بازه 31/05/1402-08/08/1395 و با استفاده از روش Asymmetric TVP-VAR ارتباط بین سهم‌های پالایشگاهی در سه حالت بازدهی مثبت، بازدهی منفی و حالت عمومی بررسی شده است. نتایج این مطالعه بیانگر آن است که بین ارتباط در بازدهی منفی و مثبت عدم تقارن برقرار است و شدت ارتباط در بازدهی مثبت بیشتر است. همچنین، سهم‌های شبنا، شبریز در بازدهی منفی و شبندر در بازدهی مثبت سهم‌های پیشرو هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Portfolio Management in the Refining Industry: Investigating Conditions with Positive and Negative Returns: An Asymmetric TVP-VAR Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheil Rudari 1
  • Esmail Jalili 2
  • Vahid Omidi 3
1 Ph.d. in Economics, Department of Economics and Administrative Sciences. Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
2 Ph.d. in Strategic Management, Department of Management and Economics, Tarbiat-Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Economics and administrative sciences, Qom University.
چکیده [English]

The refining industry is one of the most important industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and it has a significant impact on the behavior of the existing shares in it due to fluctuations in global oil prices. These effects are in such a way that they also affect the relationship between each share and the others. Therefore, in order to address the impossibility of examining all the shares available in the stock market, the formation of an optimal portfolio of various industries requires the identification of leading shares in this industry. To this end, in this study, using daily data in the period from August 30, 2016, to May 21, 2023, and employing the Asymmetric TVP-VAR method, the relationship between refining industry shares in three states of positive returns, negative returns, and general returns has been examined. The results of this study indicate that there is an asymmetrical relationship between negative and positive returns, with a stronger relationship observed in positive returns. Additionally, Shabna, Shabriz in negative returns, and Shebandar in positive returns are the leading shares in the refining industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Positive Return
  • Negative Return
  • Burse
  • Asymmetric TVP-VAR

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 13، شماره 43
1402
صفحه 133-154

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