آینده پژوهی پیشران‌های کلیدی موثر بر بی‌ثباتی بازار سرمایه ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران

2 ** استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران .

4 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد بندرگز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بندرگز، ایران

10.48308/jfmp.2024.104198

چکیده

کارایی بازار سرمایه به عنوان یکی از پایه‌های ثبات و پایداری در هر نظام اقتصادی تلقی می‌شود که می‌تواند به جلب اعتماد بالاتر سرمایه‌گذاران منجر شود. اما وجود اختلال‌های مربوط به متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی؛ حکمرانی بازار سرمایه و جریان‌های سیاسی حاکم بر بازار باعث ایجاد بی‌ثباتی بازار سرمایه می‌شود که می‌تواند تبعات رفتاری و کلان اقتصادی برای هر کشوری به همراه داشته باشد. هدف این مطالعه، امکان سنجی آینده پژوهی بازار سرمایه از منظر ارزیابی پیشران‌های بی‌ثباتی تحت وجود محرک‌های رفتار هیجانی سرمایه‌گذاران می‌باشد. روش‌شناسی این مطالعه به لحاظ جمع‌آوری داده‌ها ترکیبی است و از مجموعه فرآیندهای تحلیل تماتیک در بخش کیفی و تحلیل‌های مرتبط با سناریوپردازی در بخش کمی تشکیل شده است. مشارکت‌کنندگان در بخش کیفی 20 نفر از خبرگان دانشگاهی بودند در حالیکه در بخش کمی25 نفر از کارگزاران بازار سرمایه، که از تجربه و دانش لازم در خصوص محرک‌های رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران برخوردار بودند، مشارکت داشتند. نتایج در بخش کیفی طی 20 مصاحبه از وجود 5 مضمون سازمان‌دهنده و 40 مضمون پایه حکایت داشت که تمامی مضامین مورد استفاده در بخش سناریوپردازی نیز از تأیید تحلیل دلفی برخوردار بودند. در بخش کمی نیز مشخص گردید، مهم‌ترین سناریو مرتبط با پیشران‌های بی‌ثباتی بازار سرمایه، سناریوی سنوسی یا عبارت توضیحی (تشبیه مضمون ادبی) اسب سرکش می‌باشد که به عنوان مهم‌ترین عامل بی‌ثباتی بازار سرمایه، تحت تأثیر محرک‌ توده واری رفتار هیجانی سرمایه‌گذاران بیشتر تشدید می‌شود. نتایج به‌دست آمده گویایی این واقعیت هستند که یکی از مهم‌ترین دلایل بی‌ثباتی بازار سرمایه، رفتار توده‌وار سرمایه‌گذاران و سهامداران می‌باشد و دلیل آن وجود نوسانات ارزی است که باعث می‌شود تا جذابیت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری در بازارهای مالی مثل بورس اوراق بهادار، جای خود را به سرمایه‌گذاری در بازارهای پولی و ارزی دهد تا با نوسان‌گریزی تفاوت ریال با ارزهای بین‌المللی، بازده بیشتری را در افق کوتاه‌مدت‌تر برای سرمایه‌گذاران به همراه داشته باشد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future research of the key drivers affecting the instability of Iran's capital market

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yalda Charmi Oskouy 1
  • Khadijeh Ebrahimi kahrizsangi 2
  • Arezoo Aghaie Chadgany 3
  • Mehdi Safari Gerayli 4
1 PH.D Candidate, Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
4 Associate Prof., Department of Accounting, Bandargaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bandargaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Capital market efficiency is considered as one of the foundations of stability and stability in any economic system, which can lead to higher investor confidence. But the existence of disturbances related to macroeconomic variables; The governance of the capital market and the political currents governing the market cause the instability of the capital market, which can have behavioral and macroeconomic consequences for any country. The purpose of this research is the feasibility of capital market future research is from the perspective of evaluating the drivers of instability under the presence of the emotional behavior of investors. The methodology of this study is mixed in terms of data collection and consists of a set of thematic analysis processes in the qualitative part and analyzes related to scenario development in the quantitative part. The participants in the qualitative part were 20 academic experts, while in the quantitative part 25 capital market brokers, who had the necessary experience and knowledge about the behavioral drivers of investors, participated. The results in the qualitative section during 20 interviews indicated the existence of 5 organizing themes and 40 basic themes, and all the themes used in the scenario development section were also confirmed by Delphi analysis. In the quantitative section, it was also determined that the most important scenario related to the drivers of capital market instability is the Senusi scenario or the explanatory phrase (simulation of the literary theme) of the rebellious horse which as the most important factor in the instability of the capital market, the emotional behavior of investors is further intensified under the influence of mass stimulus. The obtained results indicate the fact that one of the most important reasons for the instability of the capital market is the mass behavior of investors and shareholders, and the reason for this is the existence of currency fluctuations, which causes the attractiveness of investing in financial markets such as the stock exchange to be replaced by investing in monetary and foreign exchange markets to bring more returns in the shorter term for investors by avoiding fluctuations in the difference between Rial and international currencies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Evaluation of Drivers
  • Capital Market Instability
  • Investors’ Emotional Behavior Stimulation

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 13، شماره 43
1402
صفحه 103-132

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