طراحی شاخصی برای اطمینان مدیریتی و باورهای اقتصادی مدیران شرکت‌های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار ، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه پیام نور، یزد ، ایران.

چکیده

ادبیات مالی حاضر در بررسی چرخه­­های کسب و کار، مبتنی بر رویکرد گذشته نگر بوده و ارزیابی مدل­های اطمینان مدیرتی بر فرض عقلایی بودن انسان تاکید دارد. در پژوهش حاضر ، هدف اصلی طراحی شاخصی است که باور جمعی مدیران را نسبت به چشم‌انداز اقتصادی شرکتها و بخش‌های اقتصادی و سطح کل اقتصاد توصیف کرده و نماینده باورهای اقتصادی و اطمینان مدیریتی، مدیران شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران باشد.
پژوهش حاضر شامل گام­های کیفی و کمی است. با جستجوی عمیق منابع کتابخ‌آن‌های و با روش تحلیل تم، مضامین پایه تبیین کننده اطمینان تدوین شده است. سپس طبق روش دلفی این مضامین برای دریافت نظر خبرگان فعال در بازار سرمایه و نخبگان دانشگاهی واگذار شد. طی فرآیند سه مرحله‌ای اجماع نظری راجع به شاخص‌های مورد استفاده در پرسشنامه تأیید شد. در گام کمی برای ارزیابی میزان اعتبار پرسشنامه در تعیین عوامل اطمینان از روش تحلیل‌عاملی تأییدی استفاده شده است.
آزمون‌های بدست آمده از تحلیل‌عاملی نشان داد، توصیف متغیرها توسط متغیر پنهان مناسب است. و ساختار عاملی پرسشنامه قابل تأیید است. از این رو می توان نتیجه گرفت به کارگیری شاخص ترکیبی طراحی شده در توصیف اطمینان مدیریتی و باورهای اقتصادی مدیران شرکت­ پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادر تهران صلاحیت لازم را دارد. و می‌تواند توسط تحلیل گران،  ‌سرمایه‌گذاران  و حکمرانان برای تعیین نگرش اهالی کسب و کار نسبت به آینده اقتصاد مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Managerial confidence and Economic sentiments Index design for listed company's managers of Tehran Stock Exchange

نویسنده [English]

  • seyed jalal Tabatabaei
Assistant Prof. Department of Management, Payam Noor University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The current financial literature examines business cycles based on a retrospective approach and emphasizes the rational assumption of humans in evaluating managerial confidence models. the main purpose of the study is to design an index that describes the collective belief of managers towards the economic sectors and represents the economic sentiments and managerial confidence of managers of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The present study includes qualitative and quantitative steps. With a deep search of library resources and with the method of theme analysis, the basic themes that explain confidence are compiled. Then, according to the Delphi method, these topics were assigned to capital market and academic elites for assessment. During the three-step process, the theoretical consensus on the indicators used in the questionnaire was confirmed. In a quantitative step, the confirmatory factor analysis method was used to evaluate the questionnaire's validity.
Tests obtained from factor analysis showed that it is appropriate to describe the variables by the hidden variable. And the factor structure of the questionnaire can be verified. Applying the combined index to describe the company's managers' managerial confidence and economic sentiments listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange gets the necessary competence. In addition, analysts, investors, and regulators can use it to determine the attitude of business towards the future of the economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Index
  • Economic sentiments
  • managerial confidence
  • Uncertainty
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