ارائه مدلی برای پیش‌بینی عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت مالی، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران

3 دکتری مدیریت مالی، مدرس واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران.

4 استادیار، گروه ریاضی، واحد تاکستان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران.

چکیده

هدف از اجرای پژوهش حاضر، ارائه مدلی برای پیش‌بینی عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران می‌باشد. ضمن مروری بر ادبیات موضوعی ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام، در بخش کیفی، تعداد 12 نفر از طریق روش نمونه‌گیری نظری از میان خبرگان بازار سرمایه انتخاب و سپس با جمع‌آوری داده‌های مورد نیاز بوسیله‌ ابزارهای مراجعه به اسناد و مدارک و مصاحبه به استخراج عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام با بهره‌گیری از نرم‌افزار MAXQDA18 پرداخته و برای استخراج مدل پژوهش از مدل معادله ساختاری و از نرم‌افزار PLS بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری در بخش کمی، نمونه‌ای متشکل از 100 شرکت‌ از بین شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بین سال‌های 1388 الی 1398 انتخاب گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد ارائه مدلی برای پیش‌بینی عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام امکان‌پذیر است و به ترتیب مسئولیت اجتماعی در اولویت اول، استراتژی‌های تجاری در اولویت دوم، متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در اولویت سوم، توانایی مدیریتی در اولویت چهارم، ارتباطات سیاسی در اولویت پنجم، متغیرهای مالی در اولویت ششم و عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی در اولویت هفتم بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام تأثیر دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Presentation the Model for Predicting the Factors Affecting Stock Price Crash Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farzaneh Valizadeh 1
  • Amir Mohamadzadeh 2
  • Mohsen Seighali 3
  • Mohsen Torabian 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Financial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Associate Prof, Department of Financial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
3 Ph.D. in Financial Management, Lecturer at Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad Uinversity, Qazvin, Iran.
4 Assistant Prof, Department of Mathematics, Takestan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin,Iran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to provide a model for predicting the factors affecting the stock price Crash Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In addition to a comprehensive review of the thematic literature related to the stock price crash risk, in the qualitative section, 12 people through theoretical sampling method, selected among capital market experts and then by collecting the required data by means of document reference and interview tools to extract the factors affecting the risk of stock price crash risk using MAXQDA18 software and to extract the model from the structural equation model and PLS software has been used. Statistical population in the quantitative part, a sample of 100 companies was selected from the companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2009 and 2019. The results show, it is possible to provide a model to predict the factors affecting the stock price crash risk and respectively social responsibility in the first priority, business strategies in the second priority, macroeconomic variables in the third priority, managerial ability in the fourth priority, political communication in the fifth priority, variables Financial in the sixth priority and information asymmetry in the seventh priority affect the stock price crash risk.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Composite Index
  • Financial Inclusion
  • Financial Exclusion
  • Microfinance

مراجع

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 11، شماره 33
اردیبهشت 1400
صفحه 217-243

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