شناسایی عوامل ریسک و وابستگی های علی آن در استارتاپ‌ها: یک مطالعۀ دلفی - دیمتل در بستر سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

2 دانشیار دانشگاه اصفهان

3 پژوهشکده فناوری نانو و مواد پیشرفته، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف: سرمایه‌گذاری خطر پذیر یکی از مفاهیم جدیدی است که در سال‌های اخیر مورد توجه بسیاری از فعالان سرمایه‌گذاری قرار گرفته است. یکی از چالش‌های مهم در سرمایه‌گذاری خطر پذیر، تحلیل ریسک‌های استارتاپ‌ها است. مرور ادبیات نشان می‌دهد تحلیل و ارزیابی شرکت‌های نوپا و استارتاپ‌ها در فرآیند سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر، به دلیل نداشتن سابقه تاریخی کار دشواری است و یکی از موارد اصلی که می‌تواند بر دقت ارزیابی و درنتیجه انتخاب مورد مناسب برای سرمایه‌گذاران خطرپذیر کمک کند، شناسایی و تحلیل ریسک‌های کیفی این کسب و کارها است. مسئله اصلی این پژوهش، اول شناسایی عوامل کلیدی ریسک بر مبنای پژوهش‌های قبلی و بررسی مدل‌های ارزیابی ریسک در شرکت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر است و دوم بررسی وابستگی‌های علی میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک است که در تحلیل، شناخت و اطلاع از وضعیت ریسک کسب و کارهای موجود در سبد سرمایه‌گذاران خطرپذیر کاربرد دارد.



روش: در این پژوهش، با استفاده از روش دلفی، با نظرسنجی از 30 نفر از خبرگان فعال در حوزه سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر ایران، عوامل کلیدی ریسک شناسایی شد. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده از مرحله اول دلفی، نظراتی که خارج از بازه ∓2σ بود شناسایی شد و برخی از آنها نظرات خود را اصلاح کردند. در دور دوم دلفی با محاسبه ضریب همستگی درونی و آلفای کرونباخ، میزان همبستگی نتایج بررسی و مهم‌ترین و اصلی‌ترین عوامل کلیدی ریسک از طریق روش دلفی تائید شد. سپس با استفاده از روش دیمتل ماتریس روابط بین عوامل کلیدی ریسک از طریق ماتریس دیمتل به دست آمد. در نهایت بر اساس روابط کمی بین عوامل کلیدی ریسک نمودار روابط علی معلولی و هم چنین نقشه شبکه‌ای روابط دیمتل ترسیم شد.



یافته‌ها: با توجه به نتایج پژوهش؛ 8 شاخص کلیدی با به کارگیری روش دلفی مورد تائید نهایی خبرگان قرار گرفت و بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ و ضریب همبستگی درونی، میزان اتفاق نظر خبرگان مورد تائید قرار گرفت . بر اساس یافته‌ها شاخص ریسک مالی، ریسک عملیاتی، ریسک بازار، ریسک قانونی و حقوقی، ریسک استراتژیک، ریسک اعتباری، ریسک فناوری و ریسک آینده کسب و کار مورد تائید قرار گرفت. در مرحله دوم که با هدف بررسی روابط میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک انجام شد، نتایج روش دیمتل نشان می‌دهد؛ عوامل ریسک مالی، ریسک استراتژیک و ریسک عملیاتی به ترتیب دارای بیشترین ضریب تاثیرگذاری بر سایر عوامل کلیدی ریسک است و عوامل ریسک آینده طرح کسب و کار، ریسک اعتباری و ریسک حقوقی و قانونی بیشترین ضریب تاثیرپذیری از سایر عوامل کلیدی ریسک را دارند.



نتیجه‌گیری: این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و بررسی وابستگی‌های علی میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک در شرکت‌های استارتاپی در فصای سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر ایران انجام شد. از این رو با استفاده از روش دلفی عوامل کلیدی ریسک شناسایی و تائید شدند و سپس با استفاده از روش دیمتل، وابستگی‌ها و روابط علی میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک شناسایی شد. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده مشخص شد؛ عوامل کلیدی ریسک از طریق ضرایبی که در مدل خروجی دیمتل استخراج و در قالب نمودار علی و معلولی آورده شد، با یکدیگر ارتباط تاثیرپذیری و تاثیرگذاری دارند و نهادهای سرمایه‌گذاری خطرپذیر برای ارزیابی شرکت‌های سرمایه‌پذیر می‌توانند از این مدل استفاده کنند. نوآوری این پژوهش نسبت به پژوهش های قبلی در دو بعد؛ بررسی ارتباط میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک و هم چنین بررسی روابط معکوس میان عوامل کلیدی ریسک است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying risk factors and their causal dependencies in startups: A Delphi-DEMATEL study in the context of Iranian venture capital

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Rahimi Kelishadi 1
  • Saeed Fathi 2
  • Saeed Jahanyan 1
  • Yahya Palizdar 3
1 Department of Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor University of Isfahan
3 Research Institute of Nanotechnology and Advanced Materials, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Venture capital is one of the newest concepts that has attracted significant attention from investment professionals in recent years. A major challenge in venture capital is the risk analysis of knowledge-based companies and startups. A review of the literature indicates that valuation of knowledge-based companies and startups in the venture capital process is a difficult task due to their lack of historical records. One of the key factors that can enhance the accuracy of evaluations and, consequently, help venture capitalists select suitable investment opportunities is the identification and analysis of qualitative risks. The primary objectives of this study are, first, to identify key risk indicators based on previous studies and examine risk assessment models in venture capital firms, and second, to model the relationships between key risk indicators, which can aid in analyzing, understanding, and assessing the value of businesses within venture capitalists' portfolios.

Method: In this study, at the first step, the Delphi method was implemented by surveying 30 experts active in the venture capital field. Based on the results obtained from the first Delphi round, opinions falling outside the ±2σ range were identified, and some experts revised their responses. In the second Delphi round, internal correlation coefficients and Cronbach’s alpha were calculated to examine the consistency of the results, and the most critical key risk indicators were determined through the Delphi method. Subsequently, the DEMATEL method was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between key risk indicators in investee companies.

Results and Discussion: According to the findings, after conducting two Delphi rounds, eight key indicators were finalized and approved by the experts. Based on Cronbach’s alpha and internal correlation coefficients, the consensus among experts was confirmed. The approved key risk indicators included financial risk, operational risk, market risk, legal and regulatory risk, strategic risk, credit risk, technological risk, and business future risk. In the second phase, which aimed to examine the relationships between key risk indicators, the DEMATEL results showed that financial risk, strategic risk, and operational risk had the highest influence coefficients on other key risk indicators, while business future risk, credit risk, and legal and regulatory risks had the highest dependence coefficients, meaning other key risk indicators most influenced them. This indicates that key risk indicators are highly interrelated.

Conclusion This study was conducted with the aim of identifying and examining the causal dependencies among key risk factors in startup companies within the Iranian venture capital space. Accordingly, the key risk factors were identified and confirmed using the Delphi method. Subsequently, the dependencies and causal relationships among the key risk factors were identified using the DEMATEL method. Based on the obtained results, it was determined that the key risk factors have influential and impactable interrelationships through the coefficients extracted from the DEMATEL output model, which were presented in the form of a causal diagram. Venture capital institutions can use this model to evaluate potential investee companies. The innovation of this research compared to previous studies lies in two dimensions: first, examining the relationships among key risk factors, and second, investigating the reverse relationships between key risk factors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Venture Capital
  • Risk
  • Delphi
  • DEMATEL

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