نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مالی و بانکداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار گروه مدیریت مالی و بانکداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Purpose: This study examines how the initial investment experiences of novice investors influence their future behavior through their perception of risk. It aims to address gaps in traditional financial analysis by incorporating the psychological factors that affect investment decisions. By creating a controlled laboratory environment that simulates stock market conditions, this research intends to explore how novice investors with different risk levels shape decision-making processes and long-term investment strategies. The primary objective is to identify whether these initial risk perceptions exert a lasting influence on subsequent investment actions, or if continuous feedback from market conditions enables investors to adapt and rectify their cognitive biases over time. This investigation contributes to our understanding of behavioral finance by highlighting the critical role that early experiences play in forming an investor's mindset and risk assessment capabilities, ultimately impacting their overall investment journey.
Method: To explore the connection between initial investment experiences and risk perception, a psychological experiment was designed to simulate stock market dynamics. This study utilized the SIT (Stock Investment Task) experiment, an adaptation of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), which closely mimics real-world investment scenarios. A sample of 153 novice investors participated in the laboratory simulation. Participants were categorized into three groups based on their initial risk exposure: those with low investment experience (LIE), those with high investment experience (HIE), and a control group with managed investment experience (CIE). Over the course of 30 rounds of simulated investment decisions, researchers gathered data on participants' risk perception and behavior. This information was analyzed using a chain mediation model, allowing for a comprehensive examination of both direct and indirect effects of initial investment experiences on subsequent decisions and behaviors. The findings from this study contribute to a deeper understanding of how early experiences in investment contexts can influence risk perception and decision-making strategies in novice investors.
Findings: The analysis of novice investors highlighted the significant influence of initial investment experiences on their subsequent behavior. Participants categorized in the High Initial Experience (HIE) group exhibited increased risk aversion following substantial early losses. In contrast, those in the Low Initial Experience (LIE) group demonstrated higher levels of confidence and a tendency to embrace risk-taking behavior. Meanwhile, the Control Initial Experience (CIE) group maintained moderate risk levels, indicating that balanced initial experiences may foster stable long-term investment behavior. Notably, the study did not find evidence supporting the hypothesis that initial risk perception directly affects future risk assessments. This finding suggests that investors tend to recalibrate their perceptions over time, guided by continuous feedback from the market. As participants remained engaged with investing, their initial biases gradually diminished, showcasing their ability to learn from experiences and adapt to changing market conditions.
Conclusion: The findings of this research emphasize the crucial role that initial investment experiences play in shaping the future behaviors of novice investors. While early perceptions of risk tend not to have a lasting impact, the presence of continuous feedback mechanisms is essential for refining investment strategies. This research indicates that financial education, along with exposure to diverse market conditions, can significantly mitigate the negative consequences stemming from initial losses or feelings of overconfidence. To foster an environment conducive to learning, financial institutions should implement market simulations that allow novice investors to practice and enhance their decision-making skills. Such initiatives not only improve their understanding of market dynamics but also promote healthier risk management practices. Ultimately, this study contributes to the broader field of behavioral finance by illustrating the dynamic nature of risk perception and its profound influence on investment behavior. By acknowledging these factors, both investors and financial institutions can work together to shape more informed and resilient investment approaches.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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