The Effect of oil price dynamics on industry momentum in Tehran stock Exchange

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Msc in Financial Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Prof, Department of Financial Management and Financial Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Prof, Department of Financial Management and Financial Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

One of the factors affecting stock market returns is the change in oil return and volatility that can help explain the returns and adopt profitable strategies. Considering the importance of the impact of the crude oil price changes on stock return in different industries, this study uses monthly data from 2009 to 2018 to determine whether oil return volatility affect the profitability of Tehran stock exchange strategy? Besides of robustness of the results, the efficiency of the momentum strategy based on crude oil price data is compared with the efficiency of the conventional momentum strategy. The results show that the conditional oil return volatility and the stock market return are able to explain the momentum return of industries, the portfolio return of the winner industries and the portfolio return of loser industries. The study shows that the results are robust and the oil return volatility after controlling for macroeconomic variables has high explanatory power. The momentum strategy also yields higher returns than oil-based momentum strategy.

Keywords

References

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