Time-Varying Causality between Equity Investor Sentiment and Sukuk Returns

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of management, Department of accounting, University of Qom

2 Ph.d. in Strategic Management, Department of Management and Economics, Tarbiat-Modares University, Tehran, Iran

10.48308/jfmp.2024.104308

Abstract

Investor's sentiment is one of the most important issues in behavioral finance that plays an important role in financial markets. This paper has been investigated the dynamic causality between investor sentiment in the stock market and OTC sukuk returns in the period of 2013-2023 with monthly frequency using bootstrap rolling-window causality approach. Sukuk return is measured based on sukuk index, non govermental bonds sukuk index and govermental bonds sukuk index. The findings show that there was a causality from investor sentiment to the sukuk market (based on all three criteria) and vice versa. Investor sentiment has had a positive effect on the sukuk index in most of the period. On the other hand, the sukuk index has generally had a positive effect on investor sentiment. The effect of investor sentiment on the index of non-government bonds was negative until the end of 2015, and after that, the effect was positive and its absolute value decreased. The effect sign in the opposite case was also similar. Investor sentiment had a negative effect on the government bond index until the middle of 2018, and after that it had a positive effect. The government bond index has generally had a negative impact on investor sentiment. The findings confirm the effect of both capital flow and contagion hypotheses, with opposite predictions in explaining the relationship between the variables. In addition, the difference in the sign of the effect of the variables on each other during the research period, emphasizes the use of dynamic approaches.

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