The analysis of relationship between financial markets' illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics: Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Associate Prof., Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

3 Associate Prof., Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.

Abstract

liquidity of financial markets have been different over time. Unpredictability of liquidity in these markets is a crucial source of risk for investors. The illiquidity of the financial market through financial channels can affect the real economy. The present study analyzed the relationship between financial market,s illiquidity shocks and macroeconomic dynamics by using Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model and using quarterly time series data between 3:1387 and 4:1399. In order to achieve this goal, the Amihud index (2002) has been used to calculate the illiquidity variable. The results of the study indicate that the reaction of production growth to the illiquidity shock is negative and decreasing. Also, illiquidity shocks have an increasing effect on inflation, and the effect of liquidity growth on these shocks has been accompanied by a relative increase. Finally, the impact of the stock market illiquidity shock on the unemployment rate was increasing at the beginning of the period, and this effect decreased at the end of the period.

Keywords

References

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Financial Management Perspective
Volume 12, Issue 39
September 2022
Pages 63-82

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