The moderating role of external monitoring in Prioritizing Investors' Beliefs and Factors Influencing Those Beliefs in the Iran Capital Market Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Associate Prof, Department of Accounting, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

3 Assistant Prof, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

Abstract

     Financial and investment issues are one of the essential areas of every person's life that make one makes many decisions in different situations and it is the beliefs of the individual that make the decisions and shape their behavior in the financial arena. Referring to the lack of in-depth and, as far as possible, comprehensive research in this regard in the Iran context, a careful examination of the factors influencing investor beliefs and the importance of each factor in making an investment seems necessary. To this end, after identifying the beliefs of investors and the factors affecting them by interview, the hierarchical analysis process (AHP) and the DEMATEL technique have been used to prioritizing investors' beliefs and ranking the factors affecting them, respectively. Following a deep interview with 24 experts and the collection of beliefs and causal factors through coding, a questionnaire was prepared to prioritize the identified factors and was completed by experts who, in addition to having sufficient knowledge about investor's behavior were well acquainted with Iran capital market. Based on the findings of the research, it was found that among the 14 beliefs known by the experts, over confidence, loss aversion, self- attribution, self-control and regret – aversion are the most significant beliefs observed in the Iran capital market. In addition, among the six causal factors identified, emotions, investor capacity limitations for processing existing information and their lack of awareness of the fundamental issues of economy and investment were identified as the most important factors influencing investors' beliefs .

Keywords


  1. -Anderson J.(2005) "Cognitive Psychology and Its Implications"6TH ED. New York: Worth publishers.
  2. -Asadi, GH., Morshedi, F. (2019). “Investigating the Effect of Investor Sentiment on the Stock Price Crash Risk in Tehran Stock Exchange”, Financial Management Perspective, Vol 9, No 26. Pp: 10-30.(In Persian)
  3. -Atayie, M., (2010), “Multi-Criteria Decision-Making”, Shahroud University Publication.(In Persian)
  4. -Barber, B., and Odean. T. (2001). "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment." The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Pages: 261-292.
  5. -Barberis, N &Thaler, R(2003). "A survey of behavioral finance", Handbook of the Economics of Finance, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  6. -Barberis, N. & Huang, M (2001). “Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, Vol 56, Pages:1247-1292.
  7. -Bonner, S. (2008). "Judgment and Decision Making in Accounting",1st Edition, Published by Prentice Hall.
  8. -De Bondt. W, Thaler. R. H (1985). "Does the Stock Market Overreact?", Journal of Finance. Vol 40. P.p 793 – 805.
  9. -Fisher, E. B. Green, L. Perlow, S., & Sherman, L. (1981). "Preference Reversal and Self-Control: Choice as a Function of Reward Amount and Delay". Behaviour Analysis Letters, 1(1), 43-51
  10. -Gambetti & Giusberti (2019), "Personality, Decision – Making Styles and Investments", Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics. Vol 80. Pages: 14 -24.
  11. -Golarzi, GH., Danayie, k. (2019). “Evaluation of Shareholders’ Overreaction and its Comparison in Small and Large Companies”, Financial Management Perspective, Vol 9, No 26. Pp: 60-76.(In Persian)
  12. -Gredler , m (2005) "learning and instruction:theory into practice" 5th ed. Upper saddle river. NJ Pearson education
  13. -Hariri, N., (2006), “Principles and Methods of Qualitative Research”. Azad Univerity – Science & Research Unit.(In Persian)
  14. -Hofstede, G (2011). "Dimensionalizing cultures: The Hofstede model in context". Online readings in psychology and culture. Vol2, Pages: 8-26.
  15. -Jamshidi, N., GHalibaf, h. (2019). “Dynamics of the Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors in Tehran Stock Exchange”, Financial Management Perspective, Vol 9, No 26. Pp: 102-120.(In Persian)
  16. -Janardhana R, N. T.V.K. Reddy, P. Munirathnam (2006), "Subsurface Dams to Harvest Rainwater- A Case Study of the Swarnamukhi River Basin." Southern India. Hydrology Jourrnal. Vol (14), Pp 526-531.
  17. -Kadous , k & L Sedor (2004)."The Efficacy of Third – party Consultation in Preventing Managerial Escalation of Commitment", Contemporary Accounting Research. 55-82
  18. -Kahneman, D &Tversky, A (1979). "Prospect Theory, an Analsis of Decision under Risk",Econometrica, Vol. 47, Pages: 25-42.
  19. -Kahneman, D. and Riepe, M,(1998) . "Aspects of Investor Psychology: Beliefs, Preferences, and Biases Investment Advisors Should Know About". Journal of Portfolio Management. Vol 24. Pages: 52-65.
  20. -Kariofyllas, S. Dionisis, P. & Costas, S (2017). "Cognitive Biases in Investors' Behaviour Under Stress: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange,"International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 54(C), Pages: 54-62.
  21. -Keynes, J.M. (1936)."The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money". Published by Macmillan and Co, London.
  22. -Krech, D, Crutchfield, R &Ballachey, E (1962). "Individual in society", Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
  23. -Mill, John S. (1836). "On the Definition of Political Economyy and on the Method of Investigation Proper to It." London and Westminster Review IV and XXVI: Pages:1-29.
  24. - Neisser, U. (1967). "Cognitie Psychology".New York, Appleton-Century-Crofts.
  25. -Odean, T. (1999). "Do Investors Trade Too Much?" The American Economic Review. Pages: 1279-1298
  26. -Pompian, M (2006). "Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases", wiely finance.
  27. -Raiffa, H. (1968). "Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty". Oxford, England: Addison-Wesley.
  28. - Rockenbach, B (2004). "The Behavioral Relevance of Mental Accounting For the Pricing of Financial Options". Journal of economic behavior & organization, Vol, 53. Pages: 513 – 527.
  29. -Schwartz, H (2002)."Herbert Simon and behavioral economics". Journal of socio – Economics. 31 (3): 181-189.
  30. -Shefrin, H. and Statman, M (1984)."Explaining Investor Preference for Cash Dividends",Journal of Financial Economics, 1984, vol. 13, issue 2, Pages: 253-282.
  31. -Shiller, R., (1989). "Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System", Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amesterdam, Elsevier.
  32. -Simon, H (1955)."A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice".Quarterly Journal of Economics 69, 99 – 118.
  33. -Slovic, P. (1969), "Analyzing the Export Judge: A Descriptive Study of a Stockbroker's Decision Processes.", Journal of Applied Psychology. August, Pages: 255-263.
  34. -Slovic, P. Fleissner, D and Bauman, W. (1972). "Analyzing the Use of Information in Investment Decision Making: A Methodological Proposal". Journal of Business. April, Pages: 283 – 301.
  35. -Statman, M. (2008), "Countries and culture in behavioral finance". CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, Vol 25, Pages: 38-44.
  36. -Thaler R.H (1980)."Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice". Journal of economic behavior and organization, 1, 39-60.
  37. -Thaler, R & Shefrin, H (1981). "An Economic Theory of Self-Control,"Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), Pages: 392-406.
  38. -Thaler, R.H. (1985)."Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice". Marketing Science Vol 4, 199-214.
  39. - Veblen, T (1884),"Kant's Critique of Judgement", Journal of Speculative Philosophy.
  40. -Veblen, T (1891). "Some Neglected Points in the Theory of Socialism", Annals of AAPSS
  41. -Veblen, T (1899). "Some Neglected Points in the Theory of Socialism", Annals of AAPSS.
  42. -Wu, W. W. (2008). Choosing Knowledge Management Strategies by Using a Combined ANP and DEMATEL Approach. Expert Systems with Applications, (35) 2; Pp 828 – 835.
  43. -Wu, Y. Liu, T. Han, L. Yin, L (2018), "Optimistic Bias of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?" Pacific – Basin Finance Journal, Vol 49, Pages: 147 – 163.
  44. -Ziemek, S., (2003). "The Economics of Volunteer Labor Supply: An Application to Countries of a Different Development Level". Peter Lang, New York