The Effect of Working Capital Information in Predicting Financial Distress Based on Combination of Artificial Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Prof., Department of Accounting, Baft Branch, Islamic Azad University, Baft, Iran

2 Ph.D. Candidate in Accounting, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the information of circulation capital management information for predicting financial helplessness based on artificial neural networks and particle cumulative optimization algorithms. The statistical population of the research consists of 120 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2008-2019. In order to achieve the goals of the research, first, by studying previous studies in the field of financial distress, 28 variables affecting financial distress and then, using the leading logistic regression model, the estimated model and 5 variables were selected. Then, in order to verify the information of the information management information in circulation, comparing the research model with attention and regardless of the circulation of circulation management based on the combination of artificial neural networks and the optimization of the cumulative particle movement. The results of the two models based on the combination of artificial neural networks and the optimization algorithm of cumulative particle movement showed that the development of the research model reduced the error of neural network training with the cumulative particle movement algorithm to 0.0641. Also, with the development of the research model, the subcutaneous level of Rock increases to 6,248 and, consequently, the research model is added to 70.5%. This result shows the effectiveness of the entry of capital management in the research model.

Keywords


  1. Acosta-González, E., & Fernández-Rodríguez, F., & Ganga, H. (2019). Predicting Corporate Financial Failure Using Macroeconomic Variables and Accounting Data. Computational Economics, 53(1), 227-257.
  2. Ahmed, A. S., McMartin, A. S., & Safdar, I. (2020). Earnings volatility, ambiguity, and crisis‐period stock returns. Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, 60(3), 2939-2963.
  3. Aliakbarlou, A., Mansourfar, G., & Ghayour, F. (2020). Comparing the Identifying Criteria for Financially Distressed Companies using Logistic Regression and Artificial Intelligence Methods. Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 10(29), 147-166. (In Persian)
  4. Altan, E. (1968). Financial ratio Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
  5. Azizi, S. (2021). Modeling and Determining the Power of Working Capital Management in Predicting Corporate Financial Bankruptcy Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms. Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 14(51), 171-190. (In Persian)
  6. Bahiraie, A., Etemadi, K., & Gerami asl, A. (2016). Predicting Companies Financial Bankruptcy Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange using ANN, ANFIS, LOGIT. New Marketing Research Journal, 6(2), 166-153. (In Persian)
  7. Beaver, W.H. (1966). Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 71-111.
  8. Caballero, S., & Garcia, P., & Martinez, P. (2013). Working capital management, corporate performance, and financial constraints. Journal of Business Research, 67(3), 332-338.
  9. Chiaramontea, L., & Casu, B. (2017). Capital and liquidity ratios and financial distress. Evidence from the European banking industry. The British Accounting Review, 9(2), 138-161.
  10. Div Salar, M. (2010). A Comparative Study of Bankruptcy Prediction of Industrial Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Using Statistical Methods and Computational Intelligence Methods. M.Sc. Thesis, Allameh Tabatabaei University. (In Persian)
  11. Deloof, M. (2003). Does working capital management affect profitability of Belgian firms? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(3), 573–587.
  12. Eljelly, A. (2004). Liquidity-profitability tradeoff: An empirical investigation in an emerging market. International Journal of Commerce & Management, 14(2), 48–61.
  13. Felix, J., & Ivan, P. (2015). Bankruptcy visualization and prediction using neural networks: A study of U.S commercial banks. Expert systems with applications, 42(6), 2857-2869.
  14. Foroughi, D., Amiri, H., & Alsharif, S. (2017). Outcome of financial distress on accruals influencing future returns. Empirical Studies in Financial Accounting, 14 (55), 93-123. (In Persian)
  15. Gordon, M. J. (1971). Toward a theory of financial distress. The Journal of Finance, 26(2), 347-356.
  16. Heydary Farahany, M., ghayour, F., mansourfar, G. (2019). The effect of management behavioral strains on financial distress. Journal of Financial Accounting Research, 11(3), 117-134. (In Persian)
  17. Horne, J. C., & Wachowicz, J. (2000). Fundamentals of financial management. New York, Prentice Hall Publishers.
  18. Jang, Y., Jeong, I. & Cho, Y. K. (2021). Identifying impact of variables in deep learning models on bankruptcy prediction of construction contractors. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(10), 3282-3292.
  19. Inam, F., Inam, A., Mian, M. A., Sheikh, A. A. & Awan, H. M. (2019), Forecasting Bankruptcy for organizational sustainability in Pakistan: Using artificial neural networks, logit regression, and discriminant analysis. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 35 (3), 183-201.
  20. Izadinia, N., Mansourfar, G., Rashidi khazaee, M. (2015). Financial distress as a risk factor for the occurrence of earnings management. Financial Management Strategy, 3(3), 25-47. (In Persian)
  21. Kargar, J., & Blumenthal, R. A. (1994). Leverage impact of working capital in small businesses. TMA Journal, 14(6), 46-53.
  22. Khedri, N., Dastgir, M., & soroushyar, A. (2020). The Effect of Stock Returns Volatilities on Working Capital Accruals: Considering the Moderating Effect of Financial Distress. Journal of Asset Management and Financing, 8(3), 85-102. (In Persian)
  23. Kim, Y. H., & Chung, K. H. (1990). An integrated evaluation of investment in inventory and credit: A cash flow approach. Journal of Business Finance Accounting, 17(3), 381-390.
  24. Kieschnick, R., Laplante, M., & Moussawi, R. (2013). Working capital management and shareholder wealth. Review of Finance, 17 (5), 1827-1852.
  25. Kordestani, G., Tatli, R., Kosari Far, H. (2014). The evaluate ability of altman adjusted model to prediction stages of financial distress newton and bankruptcy. Journal of Investment Knowledge, 3(9), 83-100. (In Persian)
  26. Khodakarimi, P., & Piri, P. (2017). Predicting financial distress with using combined model of accounting and market data with logistic regression approach. Empirical Studies in Financial Accounting, 14(55), 145-168. (In Persian)
  27. Mansourfar, G., ghayour, F., & lotfi, B. (2015). The ability of support vector machine (SVM) in financial distress prediction. Empirical Research in Accounting, 5(3), 177-195. (In Persian)
  28. Mehrani, S., Mehrani, K., Monsefi, Y., Karami, Gh. (2005). A practical study of zimski and sheirana bankruptcy prediction patterns in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Accounting and Auditing Reviews, 12 (3), 131-105. (In Persian)
  29. Mohebbi Herdasht, B., Chavoshi, S. K., Jahangirnia, H., Gholami Jamkarani, R. (2020). investigating the effect of non-financial indicators on forecasting the occurrence of financial distress from the view of urban managers (Case Study: Bank Shahr). Quarterly Journal of Urban Economics and Management, 8 (30), 23-38. (In Persian)
  30. Mohseni, R., Agha Babaee, R., Mohammad Ghorbani, V. (2013). Financial Distress Prediction with the Use of the Efficiency as a Predictor Variable. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 21 (65), 123-146. (In Persian)
  31. Mun, S. G., & Jang, S. (2015). Working capital, cash holding and profitability of restaurant firms. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 48, 1–11.
  32. Pourzamani, Z., Tavangar Hamzeh Kalaei, A., & Kiarsi, A. (2010). Investigating the efficiency of logit model and multivariate differentiation analysis in predicting the financial situation of Tehran Stock Exchange companies. The Financial Accounting and Auditing Research, 2 (5), 124-94. (In Persian)
  33. Pourzamani, Z., Hassan K. (2013). Comparison of financial crisis prediction power by different artificial intelligence techniques. Financial Accounting and Auditing Research, 5 (17), 33-64. (In Persian)
  34. Qian, H., Wang, B., Yuan, M., Gao, S., & Song, Y. (2022). Financial distress prediction using a corrected feature selection measure and gradient boosted decision tree. Expert Systems with Applications, 190(5),116202.
  35. Raei, R., & Fallah Pour, S. (2009). Support vector machines application in financial distress prediction of companies using financial ratios. Accounting and Auditing Review, 15(4), 17-34. (In Persian)
  36. Raheman, A., & Nasr, M. (2013). Working capital management and profitability case of Pakistan firms. International Review of Business Research Papers, 3(1), 279-300.
  37. Raheman, A. & Nasr, M. (2007). Working Capital Management and Profitability – Case of Pakistani Firms. International Review of Business Research Papers, 3(2), 275-296.
  38. Rafuse, M. E. (1996). Working capital management: an urgent need to refocus. Management Decision, 34(2), 59-63.
  39. Sayari, N., & Mugan, C. S. (2016). Industry specific financial distress modeling. BRQ Business Research Quarterly, 20 (1), 45-62.
  40. Schiff, W., & Lieber, Z. (1974). A model for the integration of credit and inventory management. Journal of Finance, 29(1), 133-140.
  41. Smith, K. V. (1980). Profitability and liquidity trade off in working capital management. In Reading on the Management of Working capital. St. Paul: West Publishing Co, 549-562.
  42. Shin, H., & Soenen, L. (1998). Efficiency of working capital and corporate profitability. Financial Practice and Education, 8, 37–45.
  43. Tseng, F. M., & Hu, Y. Ch. (2010). Comparing four Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Logit, Quadratic Interval Logit, Neural and Fuzzy Neural Networks. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(3), 1846-1853.
  44. Vaghfi, S., Darabi, R. (2019). Validation of artificial intelligence algorithms in predicting financial distress in the industrial and mining sector with emphasis on the role of macroeconomic. Financial, Managerial and Risk. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 23(91), 213-243. (In Persian)
  45. Vaghfi, S., Heydari, Z., Khajezade, S., Kamranrad, S. (2020). Analysis financial distress agriculture and food materials industry with an emphasis on the role of Macroeconomic and accounting variables. Agricultural Economics Research, 12(47), 211-236. (In Persian)
  46. Wang, Y., Ji, Y., Chen, X., & Song, C. (2014). Inflation, operating cycle and cash holdings. China Journal of Accounting Research, 7(2), 263-276.