پیش‌بینی تقلب در صورت‌های مالی با استفاده از نسبت‌های مالی (مطالعه موردی: شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

* دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

     تقلب یکی از مهمترین موضوعاتی است که در حسابداری و حسابرسی صورت­های مالی مطرح می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش، پیش­بینی تقلب در صورت­های مالی با استفاده از نسبت­های مالی در شرکت‌های پذیرفته­شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران از سال 1385 الی 1393 می باشد. برای این منظور، تعداد 181 شرکت متناسب با محدودیت­ها انتخاب شدند. برای برآورد تقلب، بندهای موجود در اظهار‌نظر حسابرس مستقل شرکت­ها طبقه­بندی و با نظرسنجی از خبرگان این بندها با استفاده از مدل AHP فازی رتبه­بندی و در نهایت درصدهایی برای هر سال شرکت اختصاص داده شده است. علاوه بر این، متناسب با مبانی نظری نسبت­های مالی استخراج شد که در نهایت با استفاده از آزمون­های آماری 7 نسبت سرمایه در گردش به دارایی، حساب دریافتنی به فروش، وجه نقد به بدهی جاری، موجودی به دارایی جاری، بدهی به حقوق صاحبان سهام، سود ناخالص به دارایی و قدرمطلق تغییرات در نسبت جاری انتخاب شده­اند. در نتیجه تحقیق، با استفاده از آزمون لاجیت 04/64 درصد مدل برآورد شده قابلیت پیش‌بینی دارد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

  1. Abbasi, A. (2012). Metafraud: A Meta-Learning Framework for Detecting Financial Fraud, Mis Quarterly, 36(4), 1293-1327
  2. Abdul Aris; Nooraslinda; Mohd Aref; Siti Maznah; Othman; Rohana; Mohamad Zain; Mostafa (2015). Fraudulent Financial Statement Detection Using Statistical Techniques: The Case of Small Medium Automotive Enterprise, The Journal of Applied Business Research. 31(4).
  3. Aghghaleh, S. F., Iskandar, T. M. And Mohamed, Z. M. (2014). Fraud Risk Factors of Fraud Triangle and the Likelihood of Fraud Occurrence: Evidence from Malaysia, Information Management and Business Review, 6(1), 1-7
  4. Boumediene; Salem Lotfi (2014). Detection and Prediction of Managerial Fraud in The Financial Statements of Tunisian Banks, Accounting & Taxation, 6(2), 1-10.
  5. Brazel, J. F, Jones, K. L, Thayer, J. and Warne, R. C. (2014). Understanding Investor Perceptions of Financial Statement Fraud and Their Use of Red Flags: Evidence from the Field, Working Paper, Retrived from Http://Ssrn.Com/Abstract=1460820
  6. Center for Audit Quality (2010). Deterring and Detecting Financial Reporting Fraud: A Platform for Action, the Usa.
  7. Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (2008). Fraud Risk Management: A Guide to Good Practice, First Edition, Uk.
  8. Dalnial, H., Kamaluddin, A., Mohd Sanusi, Z. And Syafiza Khairuddin K. (2014). Accountability in Financial Reporting: Detecting Fraudulent Firms, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 145, 61– 69.
  9. Etemadi, H, Zolqhy, H. (2013). Using Logistic Regression to Identify Fraudulent Financial Reporting. Journal of Audit Science, 13(51), 163-145.
  10. Fauchi, H. (2004). Asosai Guidelines for the Fight Against Fraud and Corruption (October 2003). Journal of Audit Science, (13, 14).
  11. Foroughi, D, Khaleghi, M., Rasaiian, A. (2012). The Concept of the Importance of the Audit of Financial Statements and Its Impact on the Auditor's Attention in Fraud Detection Process Managers, Journal of Accounting Advances. 4(1), 135-111.
  12. Gupta, R. And Singh Gill, N. (2012). Prevention and Detection of Financial Statement Fraud – An Implementation of Data Mining Framework, International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 3(8).
  13. Jahanshad, A, Sardari Zade, S. (2014). Relation to Financial Measures (The Difference between Revenue Growth) and Non-Financial Criteria (Growth in Number of Employees) With Fraudulent Financial Reporting. Journal of Accounting Research, 4(13), 198-181.
  14. Jameie, R. And Asgharzadih, P, (2012). Reviews The Performance Gap Fraud Field Of View And Use Independent Auditors Auditing Services, The First Regional Conference On New Approaches Accounting And Auditing, Bandar Gaz, Azad University Of Bandar Gaz Branch, Http: // Www.Civilica.Com / Paper-Rcnaaa01-Rcnaaa01_015.Html
  15. Kamalian, A.R., Ebadi, F and Heidari Khoormazy, Bibi Azar. (2015). The Impact of the Financial and Non-Financial Variables On Disclosure Quality of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange, Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 5(10).
  16. Kanapickiene; Rasa; Grundiene; Zivile (2015). The Model of Fraud Detection in Financial Statements by Means of Financial Ratios, International Scientific Conference Economics and Manangement.
  17. Khajavi, Sh. And Rostamzadeh, N. (2013). Explores The Relationship Between Free Float and Financial Performance of Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange, Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 2(9).
  18. Khani, A., (2007). Official Fraudulent Activities and the Future of the Accounting Profession, Quarterly Journal of Auditor, 38, 44-48
  19. Maham, Keihan, Torabi, A. (2012). Providing Financial Reporting Fraud Risk Rating Model. National Conference on Economic Jihad (With Emphasis On National Production, Supporting Iranian Labor and Capital), University of Mazandaran.
  20. Mironiuc, M. And Robu, I. B. (2012). Empirical Study on the Analysis of the Influence of the Audit Fees and Non Audit Fees Ratio to The Fraud Risk, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 179 – 183
  21. Mohamed Yusof. K.; Ahmad Khair A.H. & Jon Simon (2015). Fraudulent Financial Reporting: An Application of Fraud Models to Malaysian Public Listed Companies, The Macrotheme Review 4(3).
  22. Mohamed, N. And Handley, S. M. (2014). Financial Statement Fraud Risk Mechanisms and Strategies: The Case Studies of Malaysian Commercial Companies, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 145, 321 – 329
  23. Namazi, M, Kamali, M. (2011), Examines the Implications of Fuzzy Logic in Accounting, Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 1.
  24. Omar N., Kunji K. R., Mohd S. Z., And Shafie, N. A. (2014). Financial Statement Fraud: A Case Examination Using Beneish Model and Ratio Analysis, International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 5(2), 184-186.
  25. Rahimian, N and Akhundzade, M. (2011). Role of Internal Audit in Preventing and Detecting Fraud, Journal of Certified Public Accountants, 15, 40-44
  26. Safarzadeh, M.H, (2010). The Ability of Financial Ratios in the Discovery of Fraud in Financial Reporting: Logit Analysis, Journal of Accounting Knowledge, 1(1), 163-137.
  27. Saghafi, A, Arabmazar Yazdi, Ali (2010). Financial Reporting Quality and Investment Inefficiency, Journal of Financial Accounting Research, 2(4), Serial (6).
  28. Tangod; Kk; Kulkarni; Gh (2015). Detection of Financial Statement Fraud Using Data Mining Technique and Performance Analysis, International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering. 4(7).
  29. Tari Verdi, Y, Amraie, H, Mehdipoor Roshan, S, (2015). The Effect of Operating Profit, Financial Leverage and Size On the Liquidity of Companies Listed On the Tehran Stock Exchange, Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 5(11).
  30. Vakili Fard, Hr; Jabbarzadeh, S, Pourreza Sultan Ahmadi, A. (2009). Study of Fraud in A Financial Statement. Journal of Accountant, 24(210), 41-36.

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار