نقش ادوار اعتباری و تجاری اقتصاد کلان در محدودیت نقدینگی و عملکرد بنگاه‌های صنعتی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر عوامل مؤثر بر محدودیت نقدینگی و عملکرد بنگاه­ها با تأکید بر ادوار اعتباری و تجاری اقتصاد کلان بررسی شد؛ بنابراین بر اساس داده­های 206 بنگاه تولیدی فعال در «بورس اوراق بهادار تهران» طی سال­های 1385 تا 1394، با استفاده از یک الگوی داده­های ترکیبی پویا و روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته، ابتدا نقش ادوار اعتباری در دسترسی بنگاه­ها به تسهیلات بانکی موردبررسی قرار گرفت؛ سپس به نقش تسهیلات بانکی در محدودیت نقدینگی بنگاه­ها پرداخته شد. در­نهایت تأثیر محدودیت نقدینگی بر بازده فروش بنگاه­های تولیدی با توجه به ادوار تجاری مورد­برآورد قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می­دهد که نحوه دسترسی بنگاه­ها به تسهیلات بانکی در شرایط ادوار اعتباری (وفور یا تنگنای اعتباری) نامتقارن است؛ به­طوری­که در زمان تنگنای اعتباری میزان اثرپذیری تسهیلات بنگاه­ها از سیاست­های اعتباری بیشتر از دوران وفور اعتباری است. از سوی دیگر در تبیین اثر شاخص محدودیت نقدینگی بر عملکرد بنگاه­ها، توجه به وضعیت ادوار تجاری (رونق یا رکود اقتصادی) ضروری است؛ زیرا اثرپذیری عملکرد بنگاه­ها از دوره رکود بیش از دوره رونق است. این واقعیت نشان می­دهد که سیاست اعتباری انبساطی در دوره رکود اقتصادی به­منظور کاهش محدودیت نقدینگی و بهبود عملکرد بنگاه­ها اگر­چه مؤثر است، ولی باید با بهبود شرایط کلی اقتصاد کلان همراه باشد؛ همچنین در شرایط تنگنای اعتباری، دسترسی بنگاه­های کوچک تر به تسهیلات بانکی و عملکرد آن­ها بیش از بنگاه­های بزرگ­تر تحت تأثیر قرار می­گیرد. مقایسه نتایج به تفکیک فعالیت­های مختلف صنعتی حاکی از آن است که در شرایط وفور اعتباری، بنگاه­های خودروسازی بیشترین و بنگاه­های ماشین­آلات و تجهیزات، کمترین دسترسی را به تسهیلات بانکی دارند. این در حالیاست که کاهش محدودیت نقدینگی بر عملکرد بنگاه­های کانی غیرفلزی بیشترین و بر بنگاه­های خودروسازی کمترین تأثیر را دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Credit and Business Cycles of Macroeconomics in Liquidity Constraints and Corporate Performance

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hassan Dargahi 1
  • Sedigheh Hanaei 2
1 Associate Prof., Department of Economics, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran
2 MSc in Economics University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This paper investigates the determinants of liquidity constraints and corporate performance with emphasis on credit and business cycles based on a sample consists of 206 industrial firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over a 10-year period (2006-2015) by using the GMM and dynamic panel data estimation technique. For this purpose, first the impact of credit cycles on the firms’ access to bank credits is studied.  Then the impact of credits on the liquidity constraints of firms is estimated. Finally, the relationship between liquidity constraints and return on sales of firms, as a performance indicator, is considered during business boom and recession.
     According to the results, firms’ access to bank credit during the credit cycles is asymmetries as in time of credit bust the access to the credit is affected greater than in credit boom. Also, the business cycles influence on relationship between liquidity constraints and firms performance, because the performance is affected more in a recession period than a boom. That means an expansionary credit policy, in order to liquidity constraints reduction during recessions, is effective but it should be accompanied by improvement in macroeconomic conditions. The results based on the firm size and industry type show, that the negative impacts of credit crunch on liquidity and performance of smaller firms are more than larger firms. Also, in the credit boom, the most and least access to bank credit are the automotive and machinery industries firms, respectively. Whereas the liquidity constraints have the most impacts on non-metal mineral industry and the least on the automotive industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Credit and Business Cycles
  • Liquidity Constraints
  • Firm Performance
  • Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)

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