عوامل موثر بر پیش‌بینی بی‌قاعدگی حباب قیمتی سهام

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد تاکستان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تاکستان، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، گروه حسابداری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.

4 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، گروه حسابداری، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران.

چکیده

در ادبیات مالی حباب به وضعیتی گفته می‌شود که قیمت بازار یک کالا با تفاوت فاحشی نسبت به ارزش‌ ذاتی آن معامله شود. چون تعیین ارزش واقعی، کار دشواری است معمولاً پس از افت ناگهانی قیمت و به اصطلاح ترکیدن حباب؛ متوجه وجود حباب می‌شوند. ویژگی حباب، موقتی بودن آن است. در این حالت سرمایه‌گذاران با هجوم بدون توجه به ارزش واقعی بازار یک کالا اقدام به خرید هیجانی در بازار می‌کنند که باعث جدا شدن قیمت بازار یک کالا از ارزش واقعی آن می‌شود.  نظر به اهمیت این موضوع؛ مطالعه حاضر بر پایه بررسی عوامل موثر بر پیش‌بینی بی‌قاعدگی حباب قیمتی سهام بنا نهاده شده است.‌ ‌در این تحقیق و به منظور حصول اهداف پژوهش؛ اطلاعات 99 شرکت برای یک دوره دوازده ساله ‌از ابتدای سال 1388 تا پایان سال‌ 1399 استخراج، ‌متغیرهای پژوهش محاسبه شده و آزمون‌های آماری لازم صورت گرفت. روش پژوهش حاضر از نوع توصیفی- همبستگی بوده و طرح آن از نوع بنیادی و با استفاده از رویکرد پس‏رویدادی است. یافته‌ها حاکی از این امر بود که از میان متغیرهای طرح‌شده؛ عملکرد مالی و عملکرد بازار بر پیش‌بینی بی‌قاعدگی سهام مؤثر هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting the Prediction of Irregularity Stock Price Bubble

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Khatiri 1
  • Sayyed Ali Taghavi 2
  • Ammar Asgari 3
  • Farideh Rostami 4
1 Assistant Prof, Department of Accounting, Takestan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Takestan, Iran.
2 Assistant Prof, Department of Financial Management, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Candidate in Accounting, Department of Accounting, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.
4 Ph.D. Candidate in Accounting, Department of Accounting, Zanjan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the financial literature, a bubble is a situation in which the market price of a commodity is traded at a significant difference from its intrinsic value. Determining the true value is difficult, usually after a sudden drop in price and the so-called bubble burst; They notice the bubble. The bubble is characterized by its temporary nature. In this case, investors rush into the market without considering the real market value of a commodity, which causes the market price of a commodity to be separated from its real value. Given the importance of this issue; the present study is based on the study of factors affecting the prediction of stock price bubble irregularity. In this study and in order to achieve the objectives of the research; Data of 99 companies were extracted for a period of ten years from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2020, the research variables were calculated and the necessary statistical tests were performed. The method of this research is descriptive-correlational and its design is Fundamental using post-event approach. The findings indicated that among the proposed variables; Financial performance and Market Performance are effective in predicting stock irregularities

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Stock price
  • Stock price bubble
  • Stock price bubble irregularity

مراجع

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چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
دوره 11، شماره 36
دی 1400
صفحه 173-187

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