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پویایی‌شناسی رفتار سرمایه‌گذاران حقیقی و نهادی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
ناصر جمشیدی, حسن قالیباف اصل

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر در­صدد است تا رفتار سرمایه ­گذاران حقیقی «بورس اوراق بهادار تهران» را از منظر بروز خطاهای رفتاری و ارتباط میان آن­ها بررسی کند. برای این منظور صورت­ وضعیت سبد سرمایه‌گذاری آن­ها طی دوره پنج ­ساله از سال 1391 تا 1395 بررسی و تحلیل شده است. نتایج نشان می­ دهد که سرمایه­ گذاران حقیقی تصمیم­ های معاملاتی ضعیفی می­ گیرند؛ به­طوری­که سهام خریداری­شده توسط آن­ها عملکرد ضعیف‌تری از سهام فروخته ­شده دارد، به­ عبارت­ دیگر دچار خطای معاملاتی هستند؛ همچنین همراستا با اثر تمایلاتی، سرمایه­ گذاران نسبت به فروش سهامی که قیمت آن افزایش یافته و نگهداری سهامی که با افت قیمت مواجه شده است، تمایل دارند. درنهایت اینکه آن­ها بازده گذشته سهم را به­عنوان معرف بازدهی آینده در نظر می ­گیرند (سوگیری نماگری). در ادامه تجزیه­ و­تحلیل خطاهای شناختی چندگانه به ­منظور بررسی اینکه آیا سرمایه­ گذاران با یک خطای شناختی، مستعد بروز سایر خطاهای شناختی نیز هستند، صورت پذیرفت. نتایج نشان می­دهد که رفتار برخی از سرمایه‌گذاران نشان ­دهنده بیش از یک خطای شناختی است. 

واژگان کلیدی
خطاهای شناختی، فرااعتمادی، نماگری، اثر تمایلاتی، خطای معاملاتی

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