سرعت تعدیل اهرم در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشگاه قم

2 موسسه آموزش عالی غیردولتی ایرانیان

چکیده

 با پذیرش وجود اهرم هدف، تخمین سرعت حرکت شرکت‌ها به سمت هدف، مهم‌ترین گام در مدل‌سازی رفتار اهرم است. هر یک از سه نظریه‌ اصلی توازن، موقعیت‌سنجی بازار و سلسله‌مراتب از دیدگاهی متفاوت به پیش‌بینی هزینه­های انحراف از اهرم هدف و هزینه‌های تعدیل به سمت هدف و درنتیجه، برآورد سرعت تعدیل اهرم پرداخته‌اند. وضعیت اهرم شرکت نسبت به اهرم هدف، وضعیت تعادل مالی شرکت و ارزش‌گذاری نادرست سهام در بازار به‌ترتیب سه عامل مؤثر در برآورد سرعت تعدیل اهرم بر اساس هر یک از این سه نظریه‌ هستند. پژوهش حاضر به بررسی سرعت تعدیل اهرم بر اساس پیش‌بینی هر یک از این نظریه‌ها و نیز تعامل آن‌ها با یکدیگر، در بین شرکت‌های پذیرفته ‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران برای دوره زمانی 1383-1395 با‌استفاده‌‌از مدل پویای کسری می‌پردازد. نتایج ضمن تأیید اثر هر سه عامل بر سرعت تعدیل اهرم، پیش‌بینی اثرات تعاملی این نظریه‌ها را به‌‌صورت کامل امکان‌پذیر نمی‌سازد. بالا‌ترین سرعت تعدیل در شرکت‌هایی است که ضمن کمتر بودن اهرم واقعی از سطح هدف با کسری وجوه نقد مواجه بوده و سهام آن‌ها در بازار کمتر از میزان واقعی ارزش‌گذاری شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Leverage Adjustment Speeds in Tehran Stock Exchange

نویسندگان [English]

  • Manijeh Ramsheh 1
  • Mohsen Gharakhani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of management, Department of accounting, University of Qom
2 Assistant professor at Iranian Institute of Higher Education
چکیده [English]

After confirming the target leverage, estimating the speed of adjustment is the most important step in leverage behavior modeling. Each of the three main theories of Trade off, Market Timing and Pecking Order theories analysied with their own prespective the costs of deviations from target leverage and costs of adjustments to target leverage to predict speed of adjustment. Above or below target debt, financial deficit or surplus, equity overvalued or undervalued are main factors of estimating leverage adjustment speed in each of the theories. This study examined the speed of adjustment based on predictions of three theories and their interactions in listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 1383–1395 with DPF.The results confirm the effects of three factors but not confirm the their interaction effects perfectly. The evidence showed that most of the adjustments occurred when firms have below-target leverage with a financial deficit and while etheir equity is undervalued in the market.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Speed of Adjustment
  • Panel Data with a Fractional Dependent Variable
  • Trade off Theory
  • Pecking Order Theory
  • Market Timing Theory

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