انتخاب و بهبود عملکرد سهام رشدی با استفاده از ترکیب مدل‌های DANP و VIKOR در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

رضا تهرانی, سعید باجلان, حسین صفری مقدم

چکیده


     انتخاب سهام مناسب جهت خريد و فروش به­منظور كسب عايدات بيشتر، مهمترين موضوع سرمايه‌گذاران در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار است؛ درحالی­که در شرایط کنونی بسياري از سرمايه‌گذاران براساس شايعات بازار و اخبار غيررسمي اقدام به خريد سهام می‌کنند. در این پژوهش بااستفاده از روش‌هایDANP  و VIKOR به انتخاب سبد سهام مناسب برای سرمایه­گذاری پرداخته خواهد شد؛ ابتدا بااستفاده از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه­ای و براساس نظر خبرگان، وزن معیارها محاسبه شده است و سپس اطلاعات مورد نياز 30 شرکت مورد بررسي از واحد آرشيو و سايت اينترنتي سازمان بورس اوراق بهادار و صورت­هاي مالي شركت­ها که در سال 1391 بیشترین نسبت P/E را دارا هستند جمع‌آوري و سپس با استفاده از روش VIKOR شركت­ها رتبه­بندي می‌شوند. معیارهای به­کارگرفته شده در این تحقیق در 4 دسته معیارهای سودآوری (شامل بازده حقوق صاحبان سهام، بازده دارایی­ها، حاشیه سود خالص، حاشیه سود عملیاتی و سود هر سهم)، معیارهای رشد (شامل نرخ رشد بالقوه، نرخ رشد سود هر سهم، نرخ رشد سود خالص و نرخ رشد درآمدها)، معیارهای ریسک (شامل ریسک بازار، ریسک تجاری و ریسک مالی) و معیارهای توسعه و بازاریابی قرار گرفتند. این تحقیق از نظر هدف از نوع کاربردی است و از نظر ماهیت و روش جمع­آوری داده­ها، از نوع توصیفی و از شاخه مطالعه موردی است.

 


واژگان کلیدی


تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره؛ فرآیند تحلیل شبکه‌ای، VIKOR، پرتفوی سرمایه‌گذاری، انتخاب پرتفولیو.

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